The electricity market and the evolution of the energy mix in Europe
How is the electricity generation mix evolving in Europe?
Momentum toward renewables is very strong. In 2025, wind and solar alone accounted for 30% of electricity generation in Europe, more than gas and coal combined. Including hydropower, renewables approach 50% of total generation.
What factors explain this acceleration toward low-carbon energy?
With the electrification of uses, industry, and the rise of data centers, the key challenge will be maintaining competitive prices for consumers.
We observe that countries most advanced in renewables, such as Spain, now benefit from lower electricity prices. Moreover, renewables are the only technologies capable of increasing electricity supply in the short term—that is, within the next five years.
In this context of energy transition, what framework should Europe prioritize?
The development of renewables requires a stable and predictable framework. Without visibility, investments could slow down. That would drive prices up and trigger negative reactions from consumers and citizens.
What should we make of increasingly frequent negative electricity prices?
They are a symptom of a lack of flexibility. As renewables expand, the system must be optimized more finely.
During periods of low wind and solar output, flexible resources are essential: gas-fired power plants, hydropower, batteries, and demand-side management.
What is the current state of European electricity grids in the face of renewables?
Renewables are developing faster than the grids. Some interconnections are saturated, and transmission lines take time to build. In this context, the gas network remains a key asset for system flexibility.
The French case
What is your analysis of France’s specific energy situation?
France currently produces around 370 TWh of nuclear electricity per year. EDF aims for 400 TWh by 2030. However, over the next five years, demand could increase by about 50 TWh due to electrification and data centers.
In other words, if renewable capacity does not increase, France will export less electricity, which will deteriorate its trade balance. It will need to import more electricity at higher prices than its own.
What lessons can be drawn from last month’s cold spell?
On January 6, France had to import electricity, particularly from the United Kingdom, where offshore wind was operating at full capacity. The French system was under strain: 52 GW of available nuclear capacity (out of 62 GW), some solar power at midday, and wind in the evening were not enough.
Gas-fired power plants enabled the system to supply more than 100 GW on January 6, notably thanks to storage. This reminds us that natural gas remains indispensable.
Global gas market: LNG and the end of dependence on Russia
Will gas continue to play a major role in the coming years?
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is entering a new phase of expansion. Available volumes could increase by around 50% over the next five years, driven by massive investments in liquefaction terminals. In 20 years of my career, I have never seen anything like it.
Driven mainly by three countries (the United States, Qatar, and Australia, which produce 60% of global volumes) this abundant supply should help lower prices and support demand, particularly in emerging countries replacing coal with gas, thereby reducing their carbon footprint.
Where does the European Union stand in its strategy to phase out Russian gas?
The European Union aims to completely stop imports by November 2027. This final step is largely achievable, as the hardest part has already been done: today, only 10% of Europe’s gas consumption still comes from Russia, compared to 40% before the war in Ukraine.
Demand has also fallen by around 20% over this period, due to high prices, energy savings, and unfortunately, a decline in industrial production in Europe.
The alliance of the electron and the molecule
In your view, what key message should we take away for the future?
The energy transition cannot rely on a single solution. It requires complementarity between electricity and gas. This combination ensures a balanced, reliable, and competitive energy system.
As seen on January 6, gas plays a crucial role in meeting peak demand. A system that is electrified too quickly may struggle during periods of extreme cold.
However, remaining too dependent on fossil fuels is not a solution either, as it exposes us to geopolitical risks. The challenge is therefore to leverage all available tools with a holistic system-wide perspective.
Key takeaways from this interview
Why are electricity prices sometimes negative?
As Laurent Néry explains, negative prices occur when production (often renewable) exceeds demand and the system lacks the flexibility to store the surplus.
What is the impact of electrification on France’s trade balance?
If low-carbon production does not keep pace with demand growth (+50 TWh expected), France may be forced to import more expensive electricity, negatively impacting its economy.
Why is LNG crucial for the global energy transition?
LNG enables emerging countries to replace coal, reducing their carbon footprint, while providing a flexible and abundant alternative to secure Europe’s energy supply.