“The current situation is not comparable to the 2022 energy crisis”
As the conflict in the Middle East pushes up gas prices and complicates the replenishment of European gas storage facilities, Laurent Néry, Head of Market Analysis at ENGIE, assesses the risks for this winter. He also looks at the progress Europe has made since the 2022 Russian energy crisis to reduce its dependence on gas.
Laurent Néry, Head of Market Analysis at ENGIE
After a significant decline in strikes in August, fighting has resumed in the Middle East. What impact are you seeing on gas prices?
The renewed conflict has interrupted the restart of Qatar’s LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports and increased pressure on market gas prices. Over the past two months, short-term prices have risen from €40 to more than €70/MWh in both Europe and Asia. They reflect market expectations that Qatari exports could remain disrupted for an extended period, potentially beyond the 2026–2027 winter. However, prices remain well below the extreme levels reached in 2022.This situation is playing out against a backdrop of competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March has reduced the availability of LNG volumes for Europe. While Chinese imports have declined compared with 2025, other Asian buyers, such as South Korea, have recently made significant purchases in preparation for the winter.
Should we be concerned?
Despite the decline in Qatari exports, global LNG production was actually slightly higher in the first eight months of the year than during the same period in 2025. Increased exports from the United States and Canada, along with high production levels in Nigeria, Australia and Norway, have absorbed much of the shock.
Over the longer term, new liquefaction capacity should further ease market conditions. Even in a scenario where Qatari exports remain constrained for an extended period, the global LNG market could return to a supply surplus as early as 2028.
What is your outlook for gas storage levels in Europe?
Storage levels are expected to be close to 75% at the end of September. This historically low level, which also reflects the fact that inventories were already low at the beginning of the storage injection season, could increase price volatility. Nevertheless, at this stage, there is no risk to security of energy supply.
Markets will be closely watching the pace of withdrawals and storage levels in early January 2027. That could be when upward pressure on prices reaches its peak.
What about France?
France is expected to meet the regulatory target of having its gas storage facilities 85% full by early November. The situation is tighter in Germany and the Netherlands, where storage levels are lagging.
However, the situation needs to be assessed at the European level, as the gas market is highly interconnected.
Has Europe learned the lessons of the 2022 Russian energy crisis?
In 2022, Europe faced an immediate risk of gas supply disruptions following the halt in Russian pipeline deliveries. Today, at this stage, there is no risk of a physical gas shortage in Europe. The main consequence of the current crisis is increased price volatility.
To answer your question, Europe has indeed strengthened its resilience since 2022, thanks to five factors:
- more diversified sources of supply;
- LNG imports;
- European gas storage filling mechanisms;
- lower gas consumption; and
- better coordination among EU member states.
What are you seeing in European electricity markets?
They remain exposed to fluctuations in gas prices linked to the crisis in the Middle East, but the growth of renewable energy in Europe is mitigating the impact. In recent years, solar and wind power generation has increased significantly, while thermal power generation has declined.
Unsurprisingly, power systems in countries with the most decarbonized energy mixes, such as France and Spain, are less sensitive to fluctuations in gas prices. It is also worth noting that nuclear power generation in France has returned to normal levels, well above the depressed levels seen in 2022.
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